NMSession – July 27, 2017 – Where Does Ad-Supported Music Fit in the New Music Industry Ecosystem?

07/30/2017 1

Where Does Ad-Supported Music Fit in the New Music Industry Ecosystem?

6:00 – 7:00:  Welcome Cocktails and Schmoozing with light snacks and refreshments
7:00 – 7:20:  Introductory Presentation by Russ Crupnick – CEO, MusicWatch
7:20 – 8:20:  Panel Discussion
8:20 – 8:30:  Q&A
8:30 – 9:00:  Continued Networking

Speakers:
YouTube: Lyor Cohen – Global Head of Music
Warner Music Group: Ole Obermann – Chief Digital Officer
Pandora: Lars Murray – SVP Music Industry Group
SoundExchange: Mark Eisenberg – SVP Strategic Initiatives
iHeartMedia: Tom Poleman – President of National Programming Group

Moderated by:
Tom Silverman – TommY BoY, New Music Seminar
 
Key Questions and Takeaways:
  • How do we drive music value to its highest potential?
  • Can ad-supported music co-exist with subscription music without reducing the upside potential of subscription?
  • What value contribution can we expect from ad-supported music to the music business?
  • Can we add an extra $1B through ad-supported music?
Notes on the Panel:
Can subscription music co-exist with ad-supported music without reducing the upside potential of subscription?
Pay television coexisted with free television and it was still able to achieve 89% penetration at $1000 ARPU. What contribution can we expect from ad-supported music to the music business? 
  • Last year Music Video contributed $306 million (up 36%) which could grow to $600 million by 2021
  • Last year Ad-supported On-Demand Music contributed $162 million. This could grow to $200 million by 2021
  • and Ad-Supported Programmed-Music delivered more than $600,000
Clearly, subscription will be the core of music revenue.
Even at the very conservative number of $4.4 billion in subscription net to the industry,
look at the ancillary revenue future in 2021:

This is one potential view of the music ecosystem in 2021, slightly less than double overall net revenues today but greater than the 1999 peak in net revenues (without adjusting for inflation so still behind)

What can we do to increase the ad-supported future (video and audio streams)?

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